The Data Politics

2026 Midterms Competitive Races

The closest 2026 races, by the numbers. Sourced, nonpartisan.

Election Day: Tuesday, Nov 3, 20267 days away

Toss-ups at a glance

9 races all three forecasters call a toss-up: 3 Senate, 1 Governor, 5 House.

Races rated Toss-up by Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Candidates listed alphabetically by last name; ★ marks the incumbent.

Senate (3)

Governor (1)

House (5)

Ratings as of: Cook Oct 20 (Senate), Oct 23 (House), Oct 27 (Governor) · Sabato Oct 27 · Inside Elections Oct 15. Party key: D Democratic, R Republican, I Independent, L Libertarian, G Green.

Competitive races

89 races · data updated Oct 28, 2026 · tap a column header to sort

U.S. HouseFL-14——Toss-upToss-upToss-up—
GovernorGA——Toss-upToss-upToss-up—
U.S. SenateME——Toss-upToss-upToss-up—
U.S. HouseMI-07——Toss-upToss-upToss-up—
U.S. HouseNY-17——Toss-upToss-upToss-up—
U.S. SenateOH special——Toss-upToss-upToss-up—
U.S. HouseOH-07——Toss-upToss-upToss-up—
U.S. HouseOH-09——Toss-upToss-upToss-up—
U.S. SenateTX——Toss-upToss-upToss-up—
U.S. HouseFL-22——Toss-upToss-upTilt R—
U.S. SenateIA——Toss-upToss-upTilt R—
U.S. SenateKS——Toss-upToss-upTilt R—
U.S. HouseKY-06——Toss-upToss-upTilt R—
U.S. HouseMI-04——Toss-upToss-upTilt R—
U.S. HouseMI-10——Toss-upToss-upTilt R—
U.S. HouseMT-01——Toss-upToss-upTilt R—
GovernorNV——Toss-upToss-upTilt R—
U.S. SenateAK——Toss-upLeans DToss-up—
U.S. HouseCA-22——Toss-upLeans DToss-up—
U.S. HouseIA-02——Toss-upLeans DToss-up—
U.S. HouseNC-01——Toss-upLeans DToss-up—
U.S. HouseTX-15——Toss-upLeans DToss-up—
U.S. HouseTX-35——Toss-upToss-upLean R—
U.S. HouseVA-01——Toss-upToss-upLean R—
GovernorWI——Toss-upLeans DToss-up—
U.S. HouseCO-05——Lean RToss-upTilt R—
GovernorKS——Toss-upLeans RTilt R—
U.S. SenateMI——Toss-upLeans DTilt D—
U.S. HousePA-08——Toss-upLeans DTilt D—
GovernorAK——Lean DLeans DToss-up—
U.S. HouseAL-02——Lean RToss-upLean R—
U.S. HouseAZ-06——Lean DLeans DToss-up—
U.S. HouseCO-08——Lean DLeans DToss-up—
U.S. HouseFL-25——Lean DLeans DToss-up—
U.S. HouseNC-11——Lean DLeans DToss-up—
GovernorOH——Lean DLeans DToss-up—
U.S. HousePA-01——Lean RToss-upLean R—
U.S. HousePA-10——Lean DLeans DToss-up—
U.S. HouseTX-34——Lean DLeans DToss-up—
U.S. HouseVA-02——Lean DLeans DToss-up—
U.S. HouseWA-03——Lean DLeans DToss-up—
U.S. HouseWI-03——Lean DLeans DToss-up—
U.S. HouseAZ-01——Lean DLeans DTilt D—
GovernorIA——Lean DLeans DTilt D—
U.S. HouseIA-01——Lean DLeans DTilt D—
U.S. HouseIA-03——Lean DLeans DTilt D—
U.S. HouseNJ-07——Lean DLeans DTilt D—
U.S. HouseNM-02——Lean DLeans DTilt D—
U.S. HousePA-07——Lean DLeans DTilt D—
GovernorAZ——Lean DLikely DTilt D—
U.S. HouseCA-48——Lean DLikely DTilt D—
GovernorFL——Lean RLeans RLean R—
U.S. HouseFL-13——Lean RLeans RLean R—
U.S. HouseFL-27——Lean RLeans RLean R—
U.S. HouseME-02——Lean RLeans RLean R—
GovernorMI——Lean DLikely DTilt D—
U.S. SenateMN——Lean DLeans DLean D—
U.S. SenateNH——Lean DLikely DTilt D—
U.S. HouseNV-02——Lean RLeans RLean R—
U.S. HouseNY-21——Lean RLeans RLean R—
GovernorOR——Lean DLeans DLean D—
U.S. SenateSC——Lean RLeans RLean R—
U.S. HouseSC-01——Lean RLeans RLean R—
GovernorTX——Lean RLeans RLean R—
U.S. HouseTX-28——Likely DLeans DTilt D—
U.S. HouseVA-05——Likely RToss-upLikely R—
U.S. HouseAK AL——Lean RLeans RLikely R—
U.S. HouseAZ-02——Lean RLeans RLikely R—
U.S. HouseCA-13——Likely DLikely DTilt D—
U.S. HouseMN-01——Lean RLeans RLikely R—
U.S. HouseMO-02——Likely RToss-upSolid R—
U.S. SenateNE——Likely RLeans RLean R—
U.S. HouseNY-03——Likely DLeans DLean D—
U.S. HouseNY-04——Likely DLikely DTilt D—
U.S. HouseOH-01——Likely DLikely DTilt D—
U.S. HouseOH-15——Lean RLeans RLikely R—
U.S. HouseTX-23——Lean RLeans RLikely R—
U.S. HouseWI-01——Lean RLeans RLikely R—
U.S. HouseCO-04——Lean RLeans RSolid R—
U.S. SenateGA——Likely DLikely DLean D—
U.S. SenateNC——Likely DLikely DLean D—
GovernorNE——Lean RLikely RLikely R—
U.S. HouseNE-02——Likely DLikely DLean D—
U.S. HouseNH-01——Likely DLikely DLean D—
U.S. HouseNV-01——Likely DLikely DLean D—
U.S. HouseNV-03——Likely DLikely DLean D—
U.S. HouseOH-10——Lean RLeans RSolid R—
GovernorVT——Likely RLeans RLikely R—
U.S. HouseCA-06——Solid DLikely DLean D—

Sources & methodology

Sources — thedatapolitics.com competitive races dataset

All sources accessed 2026-10-28 (~1:00 AM ET). Raw copies saved in raw/; build.py regenerates races.csv / races.json.

Inclusion rule

A race is included if any of the three raters lists it as Toss-up, Tilt (Inside Elections only), or Lean/Leans for either party. Ratings of Likely/Solid/Safe from the other raters are still shown for those races. Result: 89 races (13 Senate, 14 Governor, 62 House).

Race ratings

Rater Pages Ratings date Access notes
Cook Political Report https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings · https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings · https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/governor-race-ratings Senate Oct 20, 2026; House Oct 23, 2026; Governor Oct 27, 2026 (dates printed on each page) Public rating grids parsed from HTML. Per-race pages (linked in cook_url) put candidate lists behind a paywall.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball (UVA Center for Politics) https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2026-senate/ · https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2026-house/ · https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2026-governor/ · article: https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/democrats-appear-to-hold-narrow-senate-edge-with-week-to-go-rating-changes-for-senate-house-and-governors/ · Substack mirror: https://sabatoscrystalball.substack.com/p/democrats-appear-to-hold-narrow-senate · change log: https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2026-rating-changes/ Oct 27, 2026 (all three offices) The site sits behind a Cloudflare bot challenge, and the ratings are published only as images. I read them by eye from the Oct 27 article’s Map 1 (Senate), Map 2 (Governors), and Table 4 (House), taken from the Substack mirror, and checked them against the Oct 27 change log and the summary totals (House 225/193/17 toss-ups; Senate 49/46/5; Gov 26/22/2). House seats Sabato doesn’t list are rated Safe for the incumbent party, per the table’s footnote.
Inside Elections https://insideelections.com/ratings/senate · /house · /governor; data exports: https://insideelections.com/wp-content/themes/inside-elections/cache/ratings_latest_{senate,house,governor}_year=2026_district=all_clean.json Data last updated Oct 15, 2026 (all three offices); each race’s last-change date is in inside_elections_last_changed Public JSON export linked from the ratings pages. Uses a 7-point scale plus Tilt.

Cross-check: the Senate and Governor ratings I parsed for all three raters match the ratings tables on the Wikipedia overview pages below (columns “Cook Oct 20/27”, “IE Oct 15”, “Sabato Oct 27”).

Candidates and incumbents

Campaign finance (federal races only)

  • FEC bulk file “All candidates” 2025–2026: https://www.fec.gov/files/bulk-downloads/2026/weball26.zip (file timestamp Oct 27, 2026). Fields used: TTL_RECEIPTS, COH_COP (cash on hand at close of period), CVG_END_DT. Most coverage ends 2026-10-14 (pre-general reports).
  • Per-candidate pages: https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/{fec_candidate_id}/?cycle=2026 (in fec_url in the JSON).
  • Spot-checked against the FEC API (api.open.fec.gov /candidate/{id}/totals, cycle 2026) for S6TX00479 and H6TX23273: figures match.
  • Caveats: totals cover the 2025–26 two-year period only. For Senate incumbents, that leaves out money raised 2021–24. Figures are candidate-committee money only and exclude outside/super PAC spending. Candidates were matched by surname plus state/district (and first name when needed). Three were matched by hand: Dan S. Sullivan → S4AK00214, Dan J. Sullivan → S6AK00326, Ashley Hinson → S6IA00314 (her FEC name is “ARENHOLZ, ASHLEY HINSON”). No FEC record was found for Gerald Heikes (AK-Sen, R) or Eric Hafner (AK-AL, D); those fields are left blank.
  • Governor races are state-level, so there is no FEC data for them.