Toss-ups at a glance
9 races all three forecasters call a toss-up: 3 Senate, 1 Governor, 5 House.
Races rated Toss-up by Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Candidates listed alphabetically by last name; ★ marks the incumbent.
Senate (3)
- ME Senate3/3 Toss-up
- RSusan Collins★ incumbent
- DTroy Jackson
Split Ticket model: Lean D · D 61%
- OH Senate (special)3/3 Toss-up
- DSherrod Brown
- RJon Husted★ incumbent
- IGreg Levy
- LWilliam Redpath
Split Ticket model: Lean D · D 71%
- TX Senate3/3 Toss-up
- LTed Brown
- RKen Paxton
- DJames Talarico
Split Ticket model: Lean D · D 70%
Open seat (now held by R) · incumbent lost renomination in runoff
House (5)
- FL-143/3 Toss-up
- RMike Beltran
- DKathy Castor★ incumbent
- LBrian Lambert
Split Ticket model: Lean D · D 75%
- MI-073/3 Toss-up
- RTom Barrett★ incumbent
- GShane Dedrick
- DWilliam Lawrence
Split Ticket model: Lean D · D 75%
- NY-173/3 Toss-up
- DCait Conley
- RMike Lawler★ incumbent
Split Ticket model: Lean D · D 72%
- OH-073/3 Toss-up
- RMax Miller★ incumbent
- DBrian Poindexter
Split Ticket model: Lean D · D 71%
- OH-093/3 Toss-up
- LMatthew Althaus
- DMarcy Kaptur★ incumbent
- RDerek Merrin
Split Ticket model: Likely D · D 82%
Ratings as of: Cook Oct 20 (Senate), Oct 23 (House), Oct 27 (Governor) · Sabato Oct 27 · Inside Elections Oct 15. Party key: D Democratic, R Republican, I Independent, L Libertarian, G Green.
"Split Ticket model" is a separate probabilistic forecast (The Argument / Split Ticket, as of Oct 27), not one of the three expert raters. It shows the model's rating and the Democrat's win probability; it does not change the toss-up list above. It covers Senate and House only.
Early vote so far
Mail ballots returned plus in-person early votes, for states with races we track. Source: UF Election Lab early vote tracker (Dr. Michael McDonald, CC BY-NC-ND 4.0), tracker updated Oct 28, 2026 @ 1:30pm Eastern Time; fetched 2026-10-28 15:06 EDT.
Caveat: early-vote party splits don't predict results. Which party's voters vote early, and by mail vs in person, shifts from election to election.
| State | Ballots cast | % of 2022 total turnout | By party registration, not votes (D / R / other) | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK | 57,933 | 21.7% | — | Oct 27 | UF Election Lab · state data |
| AL | — | — | — | — | —Not in the UF Election Lab tracker yet. |
| AZ | 1,269,928 | 49.0% | 37.7% / 38.5% / 23.8% | Oct 28 | UF Election Lab · state data |
| CA | 4,070,172 | 36.5% | 50.4% / 28.7% / 20.9% | Oct 28 | UF Election Lab · state data |
| CO | 982,530 | 38.7% | 32.3% / 24.4% / 43.3% | Oct 27 | UF Election Lab |
| FL | 3,718,694 | 47.7% | 39.0% / 40.2% / 20.8% | Oct 28 | UF Election Lab · state data |
| GA | 2,175,916 | 54.9% | — | Oct 28 | UF Election Lab · state data |
| IA | 338,739 | 27.5% | 48.6% / 33.1% / 18.4% | Oct 28 | UF Election Lab |
| KS | 282,232 | 28.0% | 44.6% / 41.2% / 14.2% | Oct 28 | UF Election Lab |
| KY | 49,502 | 3.3% | 51.7% / 40.5% / 7.8% | Oct 28 | UF Election Lab · state data |
| ME | 220,814 | 32.4% | 49.0% / 21.7% / 29.3% | Oct 27 | UF Election Lab · state data |
| MI | 1,552,556 | 34.5% | — | Oct 28 | UF Election Lab |
| MN | 419,189 | 16.6% | — | Oct 23 | UF Election Lab · state data |
| MO | — | — | — | Oct 23 | UF Election LabPartial data: St. Louis County only (per UF notes), so no statewide total is shown. |
| MT | 234,756 | 50.1% | — | Oct 28 | UF Election Lab · state data |
| NC | 1,961,168 | 51.7% | 40.4% / 24.8% / 34.8% | Oct 28 | UF Election Lab · state data |
| NE | 185,194 | 27.1% | 39.7% / 43.4% / 16.9% | Oct 28 | UF Election Lab |
| NH | — | — | — | — | —Not in the UF Election Lab tracker yet. |
| NJ | 777,031 | 29.4% | 60.6% / 22.3% / 17.1% | Oct 28 | UF Election Lab |
| NM | 316,642 | 44.3% | 53.9% / 29.7% / 16.4% | Oct 28 | UF Election Lab |
| NV | 501,994 | 49.0% | 40.3% / 34.3% / 25.4% | Oct 28 | UF Election Lab · state data |
| NY | 1,064,498 | 17.9% | — | Oct 28 | UF Election Lab |
| OH | 1,291,317 | 30.7% | — | Oct 28 | UF Election Lab · state data |
| OR | 806,727 | 40.4% | 43.4% / 30.7% / 25.9% | Oct 28 | UF Election Lab · state data |
| PA | 934,657 | 17.3% | 65.4% / 25.0% / 9.5% | Oct 28 | UF Election Lab · state data |
| SC | 705,437 | 41.0% | — | Oct 28 | UF Election Lab · state data |
| TX | 5,535,929 | 67.9% | — | Oct 28 | UF Election Lab · state data |
| VA | 1,256,011 | 41.6% | — | Oct 28 | UF Election Lab · state data |
| VT | 123,481 | 42.3% | — | Oct 28 | UF Election Lab |
| WA | 1,140,105 | 37.2% | — | Oct 27 | UF Election Lab · state data |
| WI | 574,433 | 21.5% | — | Oct 28 | UF Election Lab · state data |
A dash means the figure isn't published. Party shares appear only for states that register voters by party and report it, and they describe registrations, not votes. "% of 2022" compares ballots cast so far with the state's 2022 general-election turnout as given by UF Election Lab.
Competitive races
89 races · data updated Oct 28, 2026 · tap a column header to sort
Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections are expert ratings. "Split Ticket model" is a probabilistic model (rating · Democrat's chance of winning; "Ind" marks an independent in the non-Republican slot). It doesn't cover governor races.
| U.S. House | FL-14 | Kathy Castor (D) vs. Mike Beltran (R) vs. Brian Lambert (L) | Kathy Castor (D) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Lean D · D 75% | Castor: $4.9M · Beltran: $2.7M · Lambert: $17K |
| Governor | GA | Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) vs. Rick Jackson (R) | Brian Kemp (R) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | n/a (not covered) | — |
| U.S. Senate | ME | Troy Jackson (D) vs. Susan Collins (R) | Susan Collins (R) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Lean D · D 61% | Jackson: $26.9M · Collins: $22.5M |
| U.S. House | MI-07 | William Lawrence (D) vs. Tom Barrett (R) vs. Shane Dedrick (G) | Tom Barrett (R) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Lean D · D 75% | Lawrence: $4.2M · Barrett: $8.2M |
| U.S. House | NY-17 | Cait Conley (D) vs. Mike Lawler (R) | Mike Lawler (R) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Lean D · D 72% | Conley: $10.7M · Lawler: $10.3M |
| U.S. Senate | OH special | Sherrod Brown (D) vs. Jon Husted (R) vs. Greg Levy (I) vs. William Redpath (L) | Jon Husted (R) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Lean D · D 71% | Brown: $68.4M · Husted: $19.9M · Levy: $133K · Redpath: $55K |
| U.S. House | OH-07 | Brian Poindexter (D) vs. Max Miller (R) | Max Miller (R) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Lean D · D 71% | Poindexter: $3.7M · Miller: $3.3M |
| U.S. House | OH-09 | Marcy Kaptur (D) vs. Derek Merrin (R) vs. Matthew Althaus (L) | Marcy Kaptur (D) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Likely D · D 82% | Kaptur: $5.9M · Merrin: $2.2M |
| U.S. Senate | TX | James Talarico (D) vs. Ken Paxton (R) vs. Ted Brown (L) | John Cornyn (R) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Lean D · D 70% | Talarico: $146.3M · Paxton: $22.3M · Brown: $14K |
| U.S. House | FL-22 | Pia Dandiya (D) vs. Casey Askar (R) | — | Toss-up | Toss-up | Tilt R | Toss-up · D 45% | Dandiya: $4.6M · Askar: $7.4M |
| U.S. Senate | IA | Josh Turek (D) vs. Ashley Hinson (R) vs. Thomas Laehn (L) | Joni Ernst (R) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Tilt R | Toss-up · D 49% | Turek: $24.3M · Hinson: $14.1M · Laehn: $61K |
| U.S. Senate | KS | Adam Hamilton (D) vs. Roger Marshall (R) vs. David Graham (L) | Roger Marshall (R) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Tilt R | Lean R · D 39% | Hamilton: $19.2M · Marshall: $5.4M |
| U.S. House | KY-06 | Zach Dembo (D) vs. Ralph Alvarado (R) vs. Jay Bowman (I) vs. Pete Lynch (K) | Andy Barr (R) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Tilt R | Toss-up · D 59% | Dembo: $3.2M · Alvarado: $2.3M |
| U.S. House | MI-04 | Sean McCann (D) vs. Bill Huizenga (R) vs. Shafina Che Barnett (G) | Bill Huizenga (R) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Tilt R | Toss-up · D 50% | McCann: $4.7M · Huizenga: $5.6M |
| U.S. House | MI-10 | Christina Hines (D) vs. Mike Bouchard Jr. (R) vs. Andrea L. Kirby (W) vs. Kwabena Nkromo (G) vs. Mike Saliba (L) | John James (R) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Tilt R | Lean D · D 70% | Hines: $4.2M · Jr.: $2.9M |
| U.S. House | MT-01 | Sam Forstag (D) vs. Aaron Flint (R) vs. Nick Sheedy (L) | Ryan Zinke (R) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Tilt R | Toss-up · D 48% | Forstag: $4.3M · Flint: $2.9M |
| Governor | NV | Aaron Ford (D) vs. Joe Lombardo (R) vs. Danielle Ford (I) | Joe Lombardo (R) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Tilt R | n/a (not covered) | — |
| U.S. Senate | AK | Mary Peltola (D) vs. Gerald Heikes (R) vs. Dan J. Sullivan (R) vs. Dan S. Sullivan (R) | Dan Sullivan (R) | Toss-up | Leans D | Toss-up | Lean D · D 66% | Peltola: $36.9M · Dan J. Sullivan: $31K · Dan S. Sullivan: $11.5M |
| U.S. House | CA-22 | Randy Villegas (D) vs. David Valadao (R) | David Valadao (R) | Toss-up | Leans D | Toss-up | Lean D · D 79% | Villegas: $5.9M · Valadao: $6.3M |
| U.S. House | IA-02 | Lindsay James (D) vs. Joe Mitchell (R) vs. Dave Bushaw (I) vs. Rick Stewart (L) | Ashley Hinson (R) | Toss-up | Leans D | Toss-up | Lean D · D 65% | James: $3.9M · Mitchell: $2.9M · Bushaw: $38K |
| U.S. House | NC-01 | Don Davis (D) vs. Laurie Buckhout (R) vs. Tom Bailey (L) | Don Davis (D) | Toss-up | Leans D | Toss-up | Lean D · D 76% | Davis: $5.8M · Buckhout: $4.8M |
| U.S. House | TX-15 | Bobby Pulido (D) vs. Monica De La Cruz (R) | Monica De La Cruz (R) | Toss-up | Leans D | Toss-up | Lean D · D 67% | Pulido: $6.8M · Cruz: $6.8M |
| U.S. House | TX-35 | Johnny Garcia (D) vs. Carlos De La Cruz (R) | — | Toss-up | Toss-up | Lean R | Lean D · D 63% | Garcia: $2.2M · Cruz: $2.0M |
| U.S. House | VA-01 | Shannon Taylor (D) vs. Rob Wittman (R) | Rob Wittman (R) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Lean R | Toss-up · D 56% | Taylor: $4.6M · Wittman: $5.4M |
| Governor | WI | David Crowley (D) vs. Tom Tiffany (R) | Tony Evers (D) | Toss-up | Leans D | Toss-up | n/a (not covered) | — |
| U.S. House | CO-05 | Jessica Killin (D) vs. Jeff Crank (R) vs. Mark Elworth (L) vs. Christopher Mitchell (C) | Jeff Crank (R) | Lean R | Toss-up | Tilt R | Lean R · D 36% | Killin: $5.6M · Crank: $2.9M · Mitchell: $210 |
| Governor | KS | Cindy Holscher (D) vs. Ty Masterson (R) | Laura Kelly (D) | Toss-up | Leans R | Tilt R | n/a (not covered) | — |
| U.S. Senate | MI | Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs. Mike Rogers (R) vs. Lydia Christensen (L) vs. Walter P. Kristy (N) vs. Tim Long (U) vs. Douglas P. Marsh (G) | Gary Peters (D) | Toss-up | Leans D | Tilt D | Lean D · D 73% | El-Sayed: $53.8M · Rogers: $23.0M · Christensen: $7K |
| U.S. House | PA-08 | Paige Cognetti (D) vs. Rob Bresnahan (R) | Rob Bresnahan (R) | Toss-up | Leans D | Tilt D | Lean D · D 71% | Cognetti: $7.5M · Bresnahan: $6.5M |
| Governor | AK | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) vs. Dave Bronson (R) vs. Treg Taylor (R) vs. Bernadette Wilson (R) | Mike Dunleavy (R) | Lean D | Leans D | Toss-up | n/a (not covered) | — |
| U.S. House | AL-02 | Shomari Figures (D) vs. Rhett Marques (R) | Shomari Figures (D) | Lean R | Toss-up | Lean R | Toss-up · D 53% | Figures: $2.7M · Marques: $1.7M |
| U.S. House | AZ-06 | JoAnna Mendoza (D) vs. Juan Ciscomani (R) vs. Jereme Peters (L) vs. Gary Swing (G) | Juan Ciscomani (R) | Lean D | Leans D | Toss-up | Safe D · D 95% | Mendoza: $11.2M · Ciscomani: $7.6M · Peters: $11K |
| U.S. House | CO-08 | Manny Rutinel (D) vs. Gabe Evans (R) vs. Dan Wood (L) | Gabe Evans (R) | Lean D | Leans D | Toss-up | Lean D · D 79% | Rutinel: $9.5M · Evans: $7.2M |
| U.S. House | FL-25 | Jared Moskowitz (D) vs. Scott Singer (R) vs. Peter Jassenoff (L) | Jared Moskowitz (D) | Lean D | Leans D | Toss-up | Likely D · D 80% | Moskowitz: $5.7M · Singer: $3.3M · Jassenoff: $11K |
| U.S. House | NC-11 | Jamie Ager (D) vs. Jennifer Balkcom (R) vs. Travis Groo (L) | Chuck Edwards (R) | Lean D | Leans D | Toss-up | Lean D · D 77% | Ager: $5.9M · Balkcom: $399K |
| Governor | OH | Amy Acton (D) vs. Vivek Ramaswamy (R) vs. Donald Kissick (L) | Mike DeWine (R) | Lean D | Leans D | Toss-up | n/a (not covered) | — |
| U.S. House | PA-01 | Bob Harvie (D) vs. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) | Brian Fitzpatrick (R) | Lean R | Toss-up | Lean R | Toss-up · D 49% | Harvie: $3.2M · Fitzpatrick: $8.0M |
| U.S. House | PA-10 | Janelle Stelson (D) vs. Scott Perry (R) | Scott Perry (R) | Lean D | Leans D | Toss-up | Lean D · D 76% | Stelson: $9.2M · Perry: $6.8M |
| U.S. House | TX-34 | Vicente Gonzalez (D) vs. Eric Flores (R) vs. Eddie Espinoza (G) vs. Chris Royal (L) | Vicente Gonzalez (D) | Lean D | Leans D | Toss-up | Likely D · D 90% | Gonzalez: $5.2M · Flores: $4.0M |
| U.S. House | VA-02 | Elaine Luria (D) vs. Jen Kiggans (R) vs. J. Matt Baker (I) vs. Geral Staten (I) | Jen Kiggans (R) | Lean D | Leans D | Toss-up | Likely D · D 83% | Luria: $8.0M · Kiggans: $7.6M · Baker: $8K |
| U.S. House | WA-03 | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) vs. John Braun (R) | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) | Lean D | Leans D | Toss-up | Likely D · D 86% | Perez: $9.5M · Braun: $3.3M |
| U.S. House | WI-03 | Rebecca Cooke (D) vs. Derrick Van Orden (R) vs. Alexander Kent (I) vs. Rustin Provance (I) | Derrick Van Orden (R) | Lean D | Leans D | Toss-up | Lean D · D 78% | Cooke: $12.7M · Orden: $9.1M |
| U.S. House | AZ-01 | Amish Shah (D) vs. Jay Feely (R) vs. Monica Alponte (L) | David Schweikert (R) | Lean D | Leans D | Tilt D | Likely D · D 94% | Shah: $5.7M · Feely: $3.8M · Alponte: $9K |
| Governor | IA | Rob Sand (D) vs. Zach Lahn (R) vs. Sondra Wilson (I) | Kim Reynolds (R) | Lean D | Leans D | Tilt D | n/a (not covered) | — |
| U.S. House | IA-01 | Christina Bohannan (D) vs. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) vs. Michael Bridgford (I) | Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) | Lean D | Leans D | Tilt D | Likely D · D 85% | Bohannan: $9.9M · Miller-Meeks: $9.1M · Bridgford: $338K |
| U.S. House | IA-03 | Sarah Trone Garriott (D) vs. Zach Nunn (R) | Zach Nunn (R) | Lean D | Leans D | Tilt D | Likely D · D 84% | Garriott: $8.1M · Nunn: $6.1M |
| U.S. House | NJ-07 | Rebecca Bennett (D) vs. Thomas Kean Jr. (R) vs. Seamus O'Toole (I) | Thomas Kean Jr. (R) | Lean D | Leans D | Tilt D | Likely D · D 81% | Bennett: $8.8M · Jr.: $6.1M |
| U.S. House | NM-02 | Gabe Vasquez (D) vs. Greg Cunningham (R) | Gabe Vasquez (D) | Lean D | Leans D | Tilt D | Likely D · D 94% | Vasquez: $5.5M · Cunningham: $2.5M |
| U.S. House | PA-07 | Bob Brooks (D) vs. Ryan Mackenzie (R) | Ryan Mackenzie (R) | Lean D | Leans D | Tilt D | Likely D · D 84% | Brooks: $5.3M · Mackenzie: $5.3M |
| Governor | AZ | Katie Hobbs (D) vs. Andy Biggs (R) vs. Teri Hourihan (N) vs. Risa Lombardo (G) | Katie Hobbs (D) | Lean D | Likely D | Tilt D | n/a (not covered) | — |
| U.S. House | CA-48 | Marni von Wilpert (D) vs. Jim Desmond (R) | Darrell Issa (R) | Lean D | Likely D | Tilt D | Safe D · D 96% | Wilpert: $5.0M · Desmond: $3.2M |
| Governor | FL | David Jolly (D) vs. Byron Donalds (R) vs. Dean Abrams (I) vs. Charles Burkett (I) vs. Jeffrey Datto (I) vs. Moe Dimanche (I) vs. Scott Jewett (L) vs. Frank Russo (I) | Ron DeSantis (R) | Lean R | Leans R | Lean R | n/a (not covered) | — |
| U.S. House | FL-13 | Leela Gray (D) vs. Anna Paulina Luna (R) vs. Tony D'Arrigo (I) | Anna Paulina Luna (R) | Lean R | Leans R | Lean R | Lean R · D 32% | Gray: $2.9M · Luna: $4.4M · D'Arrigo: $28K |
| U.S. House | FL-27 | Eliott Rodriguez (D) vs. María Elvira Salazar (R) | María Elvira Salazar (R) | Lean R | Leans R | Lean R | Likely R · D 9% | Rodriguez: $1.6M · Salazar: $2.5M |
| U.S. House | ME-02 | Matthew Dunlap (D) vs. Paul LePage (R) | Jared Golden (D) | Lean R | Leans R | Lean R | Toss-up · D 43% | Dunlap: $3.0M · LePage: $3.3M |
| Governor | MI | Jocelyn Benson (D) vs. John James (R) vs. Donna Brandenburg (U) vs. Douglas Campbell (G) vs. Anthony Hudson (L) | Gretchen Whitmer (D) | Lean D | Likely D | Tilt D | n/a (not covered) | — |
| U.S. Senate | MN | Peggy Flanagan (DFL) vs. Michele Tafoya (R) vs. Marisa Simonetti (I) vs. Rebecca Whiting (L) | Tina Smith (DFL) | Lean D | Leans D | Lean D | Likely D · D 84% | Flanagan: $11.6M · Tafoya: $12.5M · Whiting: $4K |
| U.S. Senate | NH | Chris Pappas (D) vs. John E. Sununu (R) vs. Edmond LaPlante (C) | Jeanne Shaheen (D) | Lean D | Likely D | Tilt D | Likely D · D 91% | Pappas: $23.7M · Sununu: $5.7M |
| U.S. House | NV-02 | Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D) vs. David Flippo (R) vs. Lynn Chapman (I) | Mark Amodei (R) | Lean R | Leans R | Lean R | Likely R · D 16% | Benitez-Thompson: $1.1M · Flippo: $2.9M |
| U.S. House | NY-21 | Blake Gendebien (D) vs. Anthony Constantino (R) | Elise Stefanik (R) | Lean R | Leans R | Lean R | Lean R · D 24% | Gendebien: $7.7M · Constantino: $14.5M |
| Governor | OR | Tina Kotek (D) vs. Christine Drazan (R) vs. Brett Smith (P) | Tina Kotek (D) | Lean D | Leans D | Lean D | n/a (not covered) | — |
| U.S. Senate | SC | Annie Andrews (D) vs. Darline Graham (R) vs. Mark Hackett (C) vs. Kasie Whitener (L) | Darline Graham (R) | Lean R | Leans R | Lean R | Lean R · D 22% | Andrews: $24.2M · Graham: $1.9M · Whitener: $28K |
| U.S. House | SC-01 | Nancy Lacore (D) vs. Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R) vs. Bill Reeside (L) | Nancy Mace (R) | Lean R | Leans R | Lean R | Lean R · D 38% | Lacore: $4.9M · Honeycutt: $1.3M · Reeside: $115K |
| Governor | TX | Gina Hinojosa (D) vs. Greg Abbott (R) vs. Pat Dixon (L) | Greg Abbott (R) | Lean R | Leans R | Lean R | n/a (not covered) | — |
| U.S. House | TX-28 | Henry Cuellar (D) vs. Tano Tijerina (R) vs. Marlón Durán (G) | Henry Cuellar (D) | Likely D | Leans D | Tilt D | Safe D · D 98% | Cuellar: $3.0M · Tijerina: $1.9M |
| U.S. House | VA-05 | Tom Perriello (D) vs. John McGuire (R) vs. Cooke Harvey (I) | John McGuire (R) | Likely R | Toss-up | Likely R | Likely R · D 14% | Perriello: $3.8M · McGuire: $2.4M |
| U.S. House | AK AL | Eric Hafner (D) vs. Nick Begich III (R) vs. Bill Hill (I) vs. Jim McDermott (L) | Nick Begich III (R) | Lean R | Leans R | Likely R | Likely R · Ind 16% | III: $6.4M · Hill: $2.6M |
| U.S. House | AZ-02 | Jonathan Nez (D) vs. Eli Crane (R) vs. Curtis Goodwin (L) | Eli Crane (R) | Lean R | Leans R | Likely R | Toss-up · D 54% | Nez: $5.8M · Crane: $11.9M |
| U.S. House | CA-13 | Adam Gray (D) vs. Kevin Lincoln (R) | Adam Gray (D) | Likely D | Likely D | Tilt D | Safe D · D 99% | Gray: $5.2M · Lincoln: $3.0M |
| U.S. House | MN-01 | Jake Johnson (DFL) vs. Brad Finstad (R) | Brad Finstad (R) | Lean R | Leans R | Likely R | Lean R · D 21% | Johnson: $3.5M · Finstad: $2.8M |
| U.S. House | MO-02 | Fred Wellman (D) vs. Ann Wagner (R) vs. Brandon Daugherty (L) | Ann Wagner (R) | Likely R | Toss-up | Solid R | Toss-up · D 41% | Wellman: $2.2M · Wagner: $4.2M |
| U.S. Senate | NE | Pete Ricketts (R) vs. Chuck Conboy (A) vs. Mike Marvin (L) vs. Dan Osborn (I) vs. Robin Richards (W) | Pete Ricketts (R) | Likely R | Leans R | Lean R | Lean R · Ind 37% | Ricketts: $14.5M · Conboy: $0 · Marvin: $28K · Osborn: $11.0M · Richards: $0 |
| U.S. House | NY-03 | Tom Suozzi (D) vs. Mike LiPetri (R) | Tom Suozzi (D) | Likely D | Leans D | Lean D | Safe D · D 97% | Suozzi: $7.6M · LiPetri: $2.6M |
| U.S. House | NY-04 | Laura Gillen (D) vs. Jeanine Driscoll (R) vs. Blay Tarnoff (L) | Laura Gillen (D) | Likely D | Likely D | Tilt D | Safe D · D 100% | Gillen: $6.2M · Driscoll: $685K · Tarnoff: $25K |
| U.S. House | OH-01 | Greg Landsman (D) vs. Eric Conroy (R) vs. Nathan Weise (L) | Greg Landsman (D) | Likely D | Likely D | Tilt D | Likely D · D 91% | Landsman: $5.7M · Conroy: $2.4M |
| U.S. House | OH-15 | Don Leonard (D) vs. Mike Carey (R) vs. Brennan Barrington (L) | Mike Carey (R) | Lean R | Leans R | Likely R | Lean R · D 26% | Leonard: $1.3M · Carey: $4.2M |
| U.S. House | TX-23 | Katy Padilla Stout (D) vs. Brandon Herrera (R) vs. Ben Mendoza (I) | Vacant (R) | Lean R | Leans R | Likely R | Toss-up · D 52% | Stout: $1.1M · Herrera: $3.1M |
| U.S. House | WI-01 | Mitchell Berman (D) vs. Bryan Steil (R) | Bryan Steil (R) | Lean R | Leans R | Likely R | Lean R · D 38% | Berman: $2.0M · Steil: $6.4M |
| U.S. House | CO-04 | Eileen Laubacher (D) vs. Lauren Boebert (R) vs. Douglas Mangeris (L) | Lauren Boebert (R) | Lean R | Leans R | Solid R | Toss-up · D 47% | Laubacher: $13.7M · Boebert: $1.2M |
| U.S. Senate | GA | Jon Ossoff (D) vs. Mike Collins (R) | Jon Ossoff (D) | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Safe D · D 95% | Ossoff: $115.9M · Collins: $10.7M |
| U.S. Senate | NC | Roy Cooper (D) vs. Michael Whatley (R) vs. Shannon Bray (L) vs. Michael Dublin (G) | Thom Tillis (R) | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Safe D · D 96% | Cooper: $49.6M · Whatley: $13.7M · Dublin: $28K |
| Governor | NE | Lynne Walz (D) vs. Jim Pillen (R) vs. Rick Beard (L) vs. Brett Lindstrom (A) | Jim Pillen (R) | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | n/a (not covered) | — |
| U.S. House | NE-02 | Denise Powell (D) vs. Brinker Harding (R) vs. Eric Foreman (L) | Don Bacon (R) | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Safe D · D 100% | Powell: $5.1M · Harding: $2.9M |
| U.S. House | NH-01 | Stefany Shaheen (D) vs. Anthony DiLorenzo (R) | Chris Pappas (D) | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D · D 88% | Shaheen: $3.2M · DiLorenzo: $6.8M |
| U.S. House | NV-01 | Dina Titus (D) vs. Carrie Buck (R) vs. Bobby Khan (I) vs. Steven St. John (I) | Dina Titus (D) | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Safe D · D 100% | Titus: $2.1M · Buck: $2.6M · Khan: $87K |
| U.S. House | NV-03 | Susie Lee (D) vs. Martin O'Donnell (R) vs. Jon Kamerath (I) | Susie Lee (D) | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Safe D · D 98% | Lee: $5.9M · O'Donnell: $4.9M |
| U.S. House | OH-10 | Kristina Knickerbocker (D) vs. Mike Turner (R) vs. Thomas McMasters (L) | Mike Turner (R) | Lean R | Leans R | Solid R | Likely R · D 16% | Knickerbocker: $1.0M · Turner: $1.3M |
| Governor | VT | Amanda Janoo (D) vs. Phil Scott (R) vs. June Goodband (G) vs. Brian Judd (I) vs. Dean Roy (F) | Phil Scott (R) | Likely R | Leans R | Likely R | n/a (not covered) | — |
| U.S. House | CA-06 | Richard Pan (D) vs. Kevin Kiley (I) | Kevin Kiley (I) | Solid D | Likely D | Lean D | Safe D · D 98% | Pan: $2.5M · Kiley: $3.7M |
No races match those filters.
Sources & methodology
Sources — thedatapolitics.com competitive races dataset
All sources accessed 2026-10-28 (~1:00 AM ET). Raw copies saved in raw/; build.py regenerates races.csv / races.json.
Inclusion rule
A race is included if any of the three raters lists it as Toss-up, Tilt (Inside Elections only), or Lean/Leans for either party. Ratings of Likely/Solid/Safe from the other raters are still shown for those races. Result: 89 races (13 Senate, 14 Governor, 62 House).
Race ratings
| Rater | Pages | Ratings date | Access notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings · https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings · https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/governor-race-ratings | Senate Oct 20, 2026; House Oct 23, 2026; Governor Oct 27, 2026 (dates printed on each page) | Public rating grids parsed from HTML. Per-race pages (linked in cook_url) put candidate lists behind a paywall. |
| Sabato’s Crystal Ball (UVA Center for Politics) | https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2026-senate/ · https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2026-house/ · https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2026-governor/ · article: https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/democrats-appear-to-hold-narrow-senate-edge-with-week-to-go-rating-changes-for-senate-house-and-governors/ · Substack mirror: https://sabatoscrystalball.substack.com/p/democrats-appear-to-hold-narrow-senate · change log: https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2026-rating-changes/ | Oct 27, 2026 (all three offices) | The site sits behind a Cloudflare bot challenge, and the ratings are published only as images. I read them by eye from the Oct 27 article’s Map 1 (Senate), Map 2 (Governors), and Table 4 (House), taken from the Substack mirror, and checked them against the Oct 27 change log and the summary totals (House 225/193/17 toss-ups; Senate 49/46/5; Gov 26/22/2). House seats Sabato doesn’t list are rated Safe for the incumbent party, per the table’s footnote. |
| Inside Elections | https://insideelections.com/ratings/senate · /house · /governor; data exports: https://insideelections.com/wp-content/themes/inside-elections/cache/ratings_latest_{senate,house,governor}_year=2026_district=all_clean.json | Data last updated Oct 15, 2026 (all three offices); each race’s last-change date is in inside_elections_last_changed |
Public JSON export linked from the ratings pages. Uses a 7-point scale plus Tilt. |
Cross-check: the Senate and Governor ratings I parsed for all three raters match the ratings tables on the Wikipedia overview pages below (columns “Cook Oct 20/27”, “IE Oct 15”, “Sabato Oct 27”).
Model forecast (separate from the expert raters)
| Source | Data | As of | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Split Ticket 2026 midterms model, published by The Argument: https://www.theargumentmag.com/p/split-ticket-2026-midterms-model | Senate: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Hus3x/15/dataset.csv · House: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Cy0fK/19/dataset.csv (copies in raw/splitticket_*.csv) |
Oct 27, 2026 (chart data last modified 2026-10-27 06:14 UTC; fetched 2026-10-28) | A probabilistic model, not an expert rating. Fields: splitticket_rating (the model’s bucket: Toss-up if neither side is at 60%+, Lean 60%+, Likely 80%+, Safe 95%+), splitticket_dem_win_pct (the non-Republican candidate’s win probability), plus splitticket_as_of and splitticket_source_url. Joined by state (Senate) and state-district (House); all 75 federal races matched. The model doesn’t cover governor races, so they show “n/a (not covered)”. In NE-Sen and AK-AL the model’s non-Republican slot is an independent (Dan Osborn; Bill Hill). Not used in the “Toss-up at all three raters” list. |
Early vote (2026 general)
- Source: UF Election Lab 2026 General Election Early Vote tracker, maintained by Dr. Michael McDonald: https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2026-early-voting/
- Data file: https://election.lab.ufl.edu/data-downloads/earlyvote/2026/US.csv. It’s fetched by
fetch_early_vote.py, and a dated copy is saved inraw/ufel_US_YYYYMMDD.csv. Each state row links to UF’s state page and, where UF lists one, to the state election office’s data. - License: the statistics are published under CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. We attribute UF, the site is non-commercial, and we show UF’s figures unmodified. Party shares and “% of 2022” are simple ratios of UF’s own fields (
voted_*,turn_2022); UF’s tracker computes the same turnout ratio. - Fields shown:
- “Ballots cast” is
voted_all(mail ballots returned plus in-person early votes). - “% of 2022” is
voted_alldivided byturn_2022. - The party split is
voted_dem,voted_repandvoted_none. It’s shown only for states that register voters by party (per NCSL) and that report it. It describes party registration, not votes.
- “Ballots cast” is
- “As of”: each state’s own
last_updatedate. - Gaps:
- AL and NH aren’t in the tracker.
- UF’s MO figures cover St. Louis County only, so no total is shown for Missouri.
- These states report no party split: AK, GA, MI, MN, MT, NY, OH, SC, TX, VA, VT, WA, WI. Some of them have no party registration at all.
- Caveat: early-vote party splits don’t predict results. Which party’s voters use early and mail voting changes from cycle to cycle.
Candidates and incumbents
- Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections (rendered HTML, accessed 2026-10-28). The candidate lists come from the “Candidates” column, which is general-election ballot listings with Wikipedia’s citations. Wikipedia is a secondary source, so check before publishing. Ballotpedia or state election offices are the primary-source next step.
- Open-seat status comes from Cook’s grid (“OPEN”/“VACANT”) first, then Wikipedia’s status column.
Campaign finance (federal races only)
- FEC bulk file “All candidates” 2025–2026: https://www.fec.gov/files/bulk-downloads/2026/weball26.zip (file timestamp Oct 27, 2026). Fields used: TTL_RECEIPTS, COH_COP (cash on hand at close of period), CVG_END_DT. Most coverage ends 2026-10-14 (pre-general reports).
- Per-candidate pages: https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/{fec_candidate_id}/?cycle=2026 (in
fec_urlin the JSON). - Spot-checked against the FEC API (api.open.fec.gov /candidate/{id}/totals, cycle 2026) for S6TX00479 and H6TX23273: figures match.
- Caveats: totals cover the 2025–26 two-year period only. For Senate incumbents, that leaves out money raised 2021–24. Figures are candidate-committee money only and exclude outside/super PAC spending. Candidates were matched by surname plus state/district (and first name when needed). Three were matched by hand: Dan S. Sullivan → S4AK00214, Dan J. Sullivan → S6AK00326, Ashley Hinson → S6IA00314 (her FEC name is “ARENHOLZ, ASHLEY HINSON”). No FEC record was found for Gerald Heikes (AK-Sen, R) or Eric Hafner (AK-AL, D); those fields are left blank.
- Governor races are state-level, so there is no FEC data for them.